Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)
PMCID: PMC12176235
PMID: 40531924
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0326234
Journal: PloS one
Publication Date: 2025-6-18
Authors: Yang Q, Martínez-López B, Moon SA, Gomez-Vazquez JP, Scoglio C
Key Points
- Synthetic network modeling reveals heterogeneous disease transmission risks across different farm types
- Targeted infections at high out-degree farms could potentially cause up to 26,043 pig infections
- Establishing comprehensive livestock traceability systems is crucial for effective disease prevention and economic protection
Summary
This study addresses a critical gap in understanding animal movement networks and disease transmission in the US swine industry by developing a novel synthetic network generation method. Using maximum entropy modeling and data from Iowa's agricultural database, researchers created detailed networks that capture farm characteristics, movement patterns, and potential disease spread risks, with a specific focus on African Swine Fever (ASF) transmission dynamics.
The research revealed significant heterogeneity in farm-level network properties, demonstrating that certain premises play central roles in potential disease spread. While random disease introductions showed limited outbreak potential, targeted infections at high out-degree farms could lead to substantial epidemic scenarios. Notably, growth development units (GDUs), nursery, and sow farms emerged as critical network connectivity nodes, underscoring the importance of understanding precise movement patterns in epidemic modeling.
The study highlights the urgent need for improved livestock traceability in the United States, emphasizing that establishing comprehensive tracking systems would provide immense economic and public health benefits. By generating synthetic networks that incorporate farm type, size, and spatial relationships, the research offers a sophisticated approach to predicting and mitigating potential disease transmission risks in animal production systems.